Kazakhstan
MoldovaExpected goals 1.57 vs 1.08. Home side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
21h agoDouble chance : Kazakhstan or draw
21h agoReferee Marian Barbu · Kickoff 10/2/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Expected goals: Kazakhstan 1.57 vs Moldova 1.08.
That gives 48% home win, 26% draw, 25% away win; under 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -1.2 pts, draw -2.0 pts, away 3.2 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : Kazakhstan or draw
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kazakhstan win | 48% | 2.10 | 1.90 | -9% |
| Draw | 27% | 3.69 | 3.30 | -11% |
| Moldova win | 25% | 3.97 | 4.20 | +6% |
| Kazakhstan (draw no bet) | 65% | 1.53 | - | - |
| Moldova (draw no bet) | 35% | 2.90 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 48% / 26% / 25% | ||||
| Bet365 | 1.90 | 3.30 | 4.20 | 49% / 28% / 22% | 6.7% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.