São Bernardo
CRBExpected goals 1.61 vs 1.03. Teams rate closely on recent goals.
2h agoDouble chance : São Bernardo or draw
22h agoEstadio Primeiro de Maio, San Bernado do Campo · Referee De Moraes Silva, Matheus · Kickoff 10/2/2026, 10:30:00 PM
Expected goals: São Bernardo 1.61 vs CRB 1.03.
That gives 50% home win, 28% draw, 23% away win; under 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 12.1 pts, draw -2.5 pts, away -9.6 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : São Bernardo or draw
Model version dpois-1.202610022147
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| São Bernardo win | 50% | 2.00 | 2.50 | +25% |
| Draw | 27% | 3.74 | 3.10 | -17% |
| CRB win | 23% | 4.29 | 2.90 | -32% |
| São Bernardo (draw no bet) | 68% | 1.47 | - | - |
| CRB (draw no bet) | 32% | 3.14 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 50% / 28% / 23% | ||||
| Bet365 | 2.50 | 3.10 | 2.90 | 37% / 30% / 32% | 6.7% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.