Londrina
CriciumaMy Model1
45%30%25%
xG 1.4-1.0U2.5BTTS no
Expected goals 1.42 vs 1.00. Teams rate closely on recent goals.
2h agoAPI-Football2
10%45%45%
Double chance : draw or Criciuma
22h agoBookmakers2
30%30%40%
U2.5BTTS no
Bet365 · 22h agoLondrinaCriciumaEstadio Vitorino Goncalves Dias, Londrina · Referee Jonathan Benkenstein Pinheiro · Kickoff 10/2/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Not fetched yet
Why the model thinks this
Expected goals: Londrina 1.42 vs Criciuma 1.00.
That gives 45% home win, 30% draw, 25% away win; under 2.5 goals and BTTS no are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 15.0 pts, draw -0.3 pts, away -14.7 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : draw or Criciuma
Model version dpois-1.202610022147
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
All markets
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Londrina win | 46% | 2.19 | 3.10 | +42% |
| Draw | 29% | 3.47 | 3.10 | -11% |
| Criciuma win | 26% | 3.92 | 2.35 | -40% |
| Londrina (draw no bet) | 64% | 1.56 | - | - |
| Criciuma (draw no bet) | 36% | 2.79 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
Bookmaker comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 45% / 30% / 25% | ||||
| Bet365 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 2.35 | 30% / 30% / 40% | 7.1% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineups & absences
Londrina
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
Absent
None reported.
Criciuma
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
Absent
None reported.
Londrina recent form
- L9/25/2026Vila Nova 2-0 Londrina
- L9/20/2026Londrina 1-2 Fortaleza EC
- W9/15/2026Londrina 6-0 Ponte Preta
- W9/10/2026São Bernardo 1-2 Londrina
- L9/6/2026Londrina 1-2 Operario-PR
Criciuma recent form
- W9/27/2026Criciuma 3-0 Avai
- L9/22/2026Criciuma 0-2 Operario-PR
- L9/13/2026Atletico Goianiense 4-0 Criciuma
- L9/9/2026Criciuma 0-2 Juventude
- W9/4/2026Criciuma 2-0 Cuiaba
Head to head
- L6/6/2026Criciuma 1-0 Londrina