Juventude
Operario-PRExpected goals 1.49 vs 0.96. Teams rate closely on recent goals.
2h agoDouble chance : draw or Operario-PR
22h agoReferee Julio Cesar Pfleger · Kickoff 10/2/2026, 11:45:00 PM
Expected goals: Juventude 1.49 vs Operario-PR 0.96.
That gives 48% home win, 29% draw, 23% away win; under 2.5 goals and BTTS no are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -5.5 pts, draw 0.6 pts, away 4.9 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : draw or Operario-PR
Model version dpois-1.202610022147
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventude win | 49% | 2.06 | 1.75 | -15% |
| Draw | 28% | 3.55 | 3.30 | -7% |
| Operario-PR win | 23% | 4.28 | 5.25 | +23% |
| Juventude (draw no bet) | 68% | 1.48 | - | - |
| Operario-PR (draw no bet) | 32% | 3.08 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 48% / 29% / 23% | ||||
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 3.30 | 5.25 | 54% / 28% / 18% | 6.5% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.