Daejeon Korail
Gangneung CityExpected goals 1.70 vs 0.83. Home side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
20h agoDouble chance : Daejeon Korail or draw
21h agoDaejeon Hanbat Stadium, Daejeon · Kickoff 10/2/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Expected goals: Daejeon Korail 1.70 vs Gangneung City 0.83.
That gives 57% home win, 25% draw, 18% away win; under 2.5 goals and BTTS no are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 6.2 pts, draw -1.4 pts, away -4.8 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : Daejeon Korail or draw
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daejeon Korail win | 57% | 1.75 | 1.75 | -0% |
| Draw | 26% | 3.90 | 3.40 | -13% |
| Gangneung City win | 17% | 5.81 | 4.00 | -31% |
| Daejeon Korail (draw no bet) | 77% | 1.30 | - | - |
| Gangneung City (draw no bet) | 23% | 4.32 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 57% / 25% / 18% | ||||
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 3.40 | 4.00 | 51% / 26% / 22% | 11.6% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.