Torslanda
KongahällaExpected goals 2.05 vs 2.09. Away side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
20h agoCombo Double chance : draw or Kongahälla and +1.5 goals
21h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Expected goals: Torslanda 2.05 vs Kongahälla 2.09.
That gives 39% home win, 21% draw, 40% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -9.0 pts, draw -2.2 pts, away 11.2 pts.
API-Football says: Combo Double chance : draw or Kongahälla and +1.5 goals
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torslanda win | 39% | 2.59 | 1.90 | -27% |
| Draw | 21% | 4.67 | 3.90 | -17% |
| Kongahälla win | 40% | 2.50 | 3.10 | +24% |
| Torslanda (draw no bet) | 49% | 2.04 | - | - |
| Kongahälla (draw no bet) | 51% | 1.96 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 39% / 21% / 40% | ||||
| Bet365 | 1.90 | 3.90 | 3.10 | 48% / 23% / 29% | 10.5% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.