Lindome
GaltabacksExpected goals 2.34 vs 1.41. Home side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
20h agoCombo Double chance : draw or Galtabacks and +1.5 goals
21h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Expected goals: Lindome 2.34 vs Galtabacks 1.41.
That gives 58% home win, 20% draw, 22% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 4.9 pts, draw -2.4 pts, away -2.5 pts.
API-Football says: Combo Double chance : draw or Galtabacks and +1.5 goals
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lindome win | 58% | 1.74 | 1.70 | -2% |
| Draw | 21% | 4.84 | 4.00 | -17% |
| Galtabacks win | 22% | 4.60 | 3.70 | -20% |
| Lindome (draw no bet) | 73% | 1.38 | - | - |
| Galtabacks (draw no bet) | 27% | 3.65 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 58% / 20% / 22% | ||||
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 4.00 | 3.70 | 53% / 23% / 24% | 10.8% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.