Hestrafor
OnsalaExpected goals 2.13 vs 1.29. Home side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
22h agoDouble chance : Hestrafor or draw
23h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Expected goals: Hestrafor 2.13 vs Onsala 1.29.
That gives 56% home win, 22% draw, 22% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 9.1 pts, draw -1.4 pts, away -7.7 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : Hestrafor or draw
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hestrafor win | 56% | 1.79 | 1.90 | +6% |
| Draw | 22% | 4.52 | 3.90 | -14% |
| Onsala win | 22% | 4.55 | 3.00 | -34% |
| Hestrafor (draw no bet) | 72% | 1.39 | - | - |
| Onsala (draw no bet) | 28% | 3.55 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 56% / 22% / 22% | ||||
| Bet365 | 1.90 | 3.90 | 3.00 | 47% / 23% / 30% | 11.6% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.