Smedby
NyköpingExpected goals 1.24 vs 1.11. Away side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
22h agoDouble chance : Smedby or draw
23h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Expected goals: Smedby 1.24 vs Nyköping 1.11.
That gives 38% home win, 29% draw, 32% away win; under 2.5 goals and BTTS no are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 6.3 pts, draw 4.2 pts, away -10.5 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : Smedby or draw
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smedby win | 38% | 2.62 | 2.80 | +7% |
| Draw | 30% | 3.33 | 3.60 | +8% |
| Nyköping win | 32% | 3.14 | 2.10 | -33% |
| Smedby (draw no bet) | 55% | 1.83 | - | - |
| Nyköping (draw no bet) | 45% | 2.20 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 38% / 29% / 32% | ||||
| Bet365 | 2.80 | 3.60 | 2.10 | 32% / 25% / 43% | 11.1% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.