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Division 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 24Sources agreeFri, Oct 2 06:00 PM
Farsta
vs
Fittja
My Model1
60%23%17%
xG 1.9-0.9O2.5BTTS no

Expected goals 1.86 vs 0.87. Home side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.

20h ago
API-Football1
45%45%10%

Winner : Farsta

21h ago
Bookmakers1
64%20%16%
O2.5BTTS yes
Bet365 · 21h ago

Kickoff 10/2/2026, 6:00:00 PM

Not fetched yet

Why the model thinks this

Expected goals: Farsta 1.86 vs Fittja 0.87.

That gives 60% home win, 23% draw, 17% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS no are the more likely outcomes.

Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -3.9 pts, draw 3.7 pts, away 0.2 pts.

API-Football says: Winner : Farsta

Model version dpois-1.202610020245

Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.

All markets

MarketModelFair oddBookmakerValue
Farsta win
60%		1.671.40-16%
Draw
24%		4.194.60+10%
Fittja win
16%		6.155.50-11%
Farsta (draw no bet)
79%		1.27--
Fittja (draw no bet)
21%		4.68--

Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.

Bookmaker comparison

Bookmaker1X2Fair 1 / X / 2Margin
My Model60% / 23% / 17%
Bet3651.404.605.5064% / 20% / 16%11.3%

Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.

Lineups & absences

Farsta

Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).

Absent

None reported.

Fittja

Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).

Absent

None reported.

Farsta recent form

  • D9/27/2026Sleipner 0-0 Farsta
  • L9/19/2026Farsta 0-3 Karlslund
  • W9/12/2026Farsta 3-0 Smedby
  • W9/6/2026Forward 1-2 Farsta
  • W8/28/2026Farsta 4-1 Nacka Iliria

Fittja recent form

  • L9/26/2026Fittja 1-2 Nacka Iliria
  • W9/19/2026Smedby 0-1 Fittja
  • L9/13/2026Fittja 1-2 Forward
  • D9/6/2026Syrianska FC 0-0 Fittja
  • L8/29/2026Fittja 0-1 Örebro Syrianska

Head to head