Lilla Torg
NosabyExpected goals 1.92 vs 1.64. Teams rate closely on recent goals.
20h agoDouble chance : Lilla Torg or draw
21h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Expected goals: Lilla Torg 1.92 vs Nosaby 1.64.
That gives 44% home win, 23% draw, 33% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 5.1 pts, draw -2.2 pts, away -3.0 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : Lilla Torg or draw
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lilla Torg win | 44% | 2.27 | 2.30 | +1% |
| Draw | 23% | 4.29 | 3.60 | -16% |
| Nosaby win | 33% | 3.06 | 2.50 | -18% |
| Lilla Torg (draw no bet) | 57% | 1.74 | - | - |
| Nosaby (draw no bet) | 43% | 2.35 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 44% / 23% / 33% | ||||
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 3.60 | 2.50 | 39% / 25% / 36% | 11.3% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.