Kungsängen
SunnerstaExpected goals 0.94 vs 2.06. Away side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
20h agoDouble chance : draw or Sunnersta
21h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Expected goals: Kungsängen 0.94 vs Sunnersta 2.06.
That gives 16% home win, 21% draw, 63% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -2.1 pts, draw 1.5 pts, away 0.6 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : draw or Sunnersta
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kungsängen win | 16% | 6.43 | 5.00 | -22% |
| Draw | 22% | 4.55 | 4.50 | -1% |
| Sunnersta win | 62% | 1.60 | 1.44 | -10% |
| Kungsängen (draw no bet) | 20% | 5.02 | - | - |
| Sunnersta (draw no bet) | 80% | 1.25 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 16% / 21% / 63% | ||||
| Bet365 | 5.00 | 4.50 | 1.44 | 18% / 20% / 62% | 11.7% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.