Universidad de Concepcion
HuachipatoExpected goals 1.54 vs 1.27. Teams rate closely on recent goals.
2h agoDouble chance : draw or Huachipato
22h agoReferee M. H. Assadi Quintana · Kickoff 10/2/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Expected goals: Universidad de Concepcion 1.54 vs Huachipato 1.27.
That gives 42% home win, 28% draw, 30% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -4.5 pts, draw 1.2 pts, away 3.3 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : draw or Huachipato
Model version dpois-1.202610022147
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Universidad de Concepcion win | 43% | 2.34 | 2.00 | -15% |
| Draw | 27% | 3.72 | 3.50 | -6% |
| Huachipato win | 30% | 3.28 | 3.50 | +7% |
| Universidad de Concepcion (draw no bet) | 58% | 1.71 | - | - |
| Huachipato (draw no bet) | 42% | 2.40 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 42% / 28% / 30% | ||||
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 47% / 27% / 27% | 7.1% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.