Karlberg
SollentunaExpected goals 1.17 vs 1.08. Teams rate closely on recent goals.
21h agoDouble chance : draw or Sollentuna
23h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Expected goals: Karlberg 1.17 vs Sollentuna 1.08.
That gives 37% home win, 30% draw, 33% away win; under 2.5 goals and BTTS no are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -6.5 pts, draw 5.0 pts, away 1.5 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : draw or Sollentuna
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karlberg win | 37% | 2.72 | 2.05 | -25% |
| Draw | 31% | 3.24 | 3.60 | +11% |
| Sollentuna win | 32% | 3.09 | 2.88 | -7% |
| Karlberg (draw no bet) | 53% | 1.88 | - | - |
| Sollentuna (draw no bet) | 47% | 2.14 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 37% / 30% / 33% | ||||
| Bet365 | 2.05 | 3.60 | 2.88 | 44% / 25% / 31% | 11.3% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.