Lund
LaholmExpected goals 2.16 vs 0.96. Home side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
21h agoDouble chance : Lund or draw
22h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Expected goals: Lund 2.16 vs Laholm 0.96.
That gives 64% home win, 21% draw, 15% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 1.1 pts, draw -1.4 pts, away 0.3 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : Lund or draw
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lund win | 64% | 1.56 | 1.42 | -9% |
| Draw | 21% | 4.75 | 4.10 | -14% |
| Laholm win | 15% | 6.70 | 6.00 | -10% |
| Lund (draw no bet) | 81% | 1.23 | - | - |
| Laholm (draw no bet) | 19% | 5.29 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 64% / 21% / 15% | ||||
| Bet365 | 1.42 | 4.10 | 6.00 | 63% / 22% / 15% | 11.5% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.