Kristianstad
AFC MalmoExpected goals 1.67 vs 1.33. Teams rate closely on recent goals.
21h agoDouble chance : draw or AFC Malmo
22h agoKristianstads Fotbollsarena, Kristianstad · Kickoff 10/2/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Expected goals: Kristianstad 1.67 vs AFC Malmo 1.33.
That gives 45% home win, 25% draw, 30% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 15.8 pts, draw 0.1 pts, away -15.9 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : draw or AFC Malmo
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristianstad win | 45% | 2.24 | 3.10 | +38% |
| Draw | 26% | 3.89 | 3.60 | -8% |
| AFC Malmo win | 30% | 3.37 | 1.95 | -42% |
| Kristianstad (draw no bet) | 60% | 1.67 | - | - |
| AFC Malmo (draw no bet) | 40% | 2.50 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 45% / 25% / 30% | ||||
| Bet365 | 3.10 | 3.60 | 1.95 | 29% / 25% / 46% | 11.3% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.