Ferro Carril Oeste
Deportivo MadrynExpected goals 1.27 vs 0.83. Away side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
2h agoCombo Double chance : draw or Deportivo Madryn and -3.5 goals
22h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 10:00:00 PM
Expected goals: Ferro Carril Oeste 1.27 vs Deportivo Madryn 0.83.
That gives 45% home win, 32% draw, 23% away win; under 2.5 goals and BTTS no are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -0.5 pts, draw 1.8 pts, away -1.3 pts.
API-Football says: Combo Double chance : draw or Deportivo Madryn and -3.5 goals
Model version dpois-1.202610022147
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ferro Carril Oeste win | 46% | 2.19 | 2.05 | -6% |
| Draw | 31% | 3.22 | 3.10 | -4% |
| Deportivo Madryn win | 23% | 4.29 | 3.90 | -9% |
| Ferro Carril Oeste (draw no bet) | 66% | 1.51 | - | - |
| Deportivo Madryn (draw no bet) | 34% | 2.96 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 45% / 32% / 23% | ||||
| Bet365 | 2.05 | 3.10 | 3.90 | 46% / 30% / 24% | 6.7% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.