Hinna
Staal JørpelandExpected goals 2.69 vs 2.24. Teams rate closely on recent goals.
21h agoCombo Double chance : Hinna or draw and +1.5 goals
22h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Expected goals: Hinna 2.69 vs Staal Jørpeland 2.24.
That gives 49% home win, 19% draw, 33% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -2.8 pts, draw -2.1 pts, away 4.9 pts.
API-Football says: Combo Double chance : Hinna or draw and +1.5 goals
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hinna win | 48% | 2.07 | 1.75 | -15% |
| Draw | 19% | 5.30 | 4.33 | -18% |
| Staal Jørpeland win | 33% | 3.05 | 3.20 | +5% |
| Hinna (draw no bet) | 60% | 1.68 | - | - |
| Staal Jørpeland (draw no bet) | 40% | 2.48 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 49% / 19% / 33% | ||||
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 4.33 | 3.20 | 51% / 21% / 28% | 11.5% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.