Rosenborg II
MelhusMy Model1
52%22%26%
xG 2.0-1.4O2.5BTTS yes
Expected goals 2.04 vs 1.40. Teams rate closely on recent goals.
20h agoAPI-Football2
10%45%45%
Double chance : draw or Melhus
21h agoBookmakers1
41%21%38%
O2.5
Bet365 · 21h agoRosenborg IIMelhusKickoff 10/2/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Not fetched yet
Why the model thinks this
Expected goals: Rosenborg II 2.04 vs Melhus 1.40.
That gives 52% home win, 22% draw, 26% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 11.1 pts, draw 1.0 pts, away -12.2 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : draw or Melhus
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
All markets
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rosenborg II win | 52% | 1.94 | 2.20 | +14% |
| Draw | 23% | 4.37 | 4.20 | -4% |
| Melhus win | 26% | 3.92 | 2.35 | -40% |
| Rosenborg II (draw no bet) | 67% | 1.49 | - | - |
| Melhus (draw no bet) | 33% | 3.02 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
Bookmaker comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 52% / 22% / 26% | ||||
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 4.20 | 2.35 | 41% / 21% / 38% | 11.8% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineups & absences
Rosenborg II
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
Absent
None reported.
Melhus
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
Absent
None reported.
Rosenborg II recent form
- W9/25/2026Aalesund II 1-7 Rosenborg II
- W9/21/2026Spjelkavik 0-4 Rosenborg II
- L9/13/2026Rosenborg II 2-5 Nardo
- L9/6/2026Volda 2-1 Rosenborg II
- L8/31/2026Rosenborg II 1-2 Byåsen
Melhus recent form
- L9/26/2026Melhus 0-1 Spjelkavik
- L9/20/2026Molde II 1-0 Melhus
- L9/12/2026Melhus 1-2 Volda
- W9/5/2026Herd 1-4 Melhus
- L8/30/2026Melhus 0-1 Strindheim
Head to head
- D6/19/2026Melhus 1-1 Rosenborg II
- L9/15/2025Rosenborg II 2-3 Melhus
- L7/2/2025Melhus 4-1 Rosenborg II