Ranheim
EgersundExpected goals 2.53 vs 1.74. Home side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
21h agoCombo Double chance : Ranheim or draw and +1.5 goals
22h agoReferee H. Holthe · Kickoff 10/2/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Expected goals: Ranheim 2.53 vs Egersund 1.74.
That gives 55% home win, 19% draw, 26% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 8.5 pts, draw -3.7 pts, away -4.8 pts.
API-Football says: Combo Double chance : Ranheim or draw and +1.5 goals
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ranheim win | 55% | 1.83 | 2.00 | +9% |
| Draw | 20% | 5.07 | 4.00 | -21% |
| Egersund win | 26% | 3.90 | 3.00 | -23% |
| Ranheim (draw no bet) | 68% | 1.47 | - | - |
| Egersund (draw no bet) | 32% | 3.13 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 55% / 19% / 26% | ||||
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 4.00 | 3.00 | 46% / 23% / 31% | 8.3% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.