Independiente
Instituto CordobaExpected goals 1.41 vs 1.07. Teams rate closely on recent goals.
2h agoDouble chance : draw or Instituto Cordoba
21h agoLibertadores de America, Buenos Aires · Referee Hernan Mastrangelo · Kickoff 10/2/2026, 10:15:00 PM
Expected goals: Independiente 1.41 vs Instituto Cordoba 1.07.
That gives 43% home win, 30% draw, 27% away win; under 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 3.4 pts, draw -1.9 pts, away -1.6 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : draw or Instituto Cordoba
Model version dpois-1.202610022147
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente win | 44% | 2.29 | 2.38 | +4% |
| Draw | 29% | 3.49 | 3.00 | -14% |
| Instituto Cordoba win | 28% | 3.63 | 3.30 | -9% |
| Independiente (draw no bet) | 61% | 1.63 | - | - |
| Instituto Cordoba (draw no bet) | 39% | 2.59 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 43% / 30% / 27% | ||||
| Bet365 | 2.38 | 3.00 | 3.30 | 40% / 32% / 29% | 5.7% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.