Wexford
Longford TownExpected goals 1.34 vs 1.43. Away side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
21h agoDouble chance : draw or Longford Town
22h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Expected goals: Wexford 1.34 vs Longford Town 1.43.
That gives 35% home win, 27% draw, 39% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -16.6 pts, draw 1.3 pts, away 15.4 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : draw or Longford Town
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wexford win | 34% | 2.92 | 1.73 | -41% |
| Draw | 27% | 3.66 | 3.50 | -4% |
| Longford Town win | 38% | 2.61 | 3.80 | +46% |
| Wexford (draw no bet) | 47% | 2.12 | - | - |
| Longford Town (draw no bet) | 53% | 1.89 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 35% / 27% / 39% | ||||
| Bet365 | 1.73 | 3.50 | 3.80 | 51% / 25% / 23% | 12.7% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.