Treaty United
UCDMy Model1
45%24%31%
xG 1.7-1.4O2.5BTTS yes
Expected goals 1.73 vs 1.41. Teams rate closely on recent goals.
21h agoAPI-Football2
10%45%45%
Double chance : draw or UCD
22h agoBookmakers2
31%26%43%
O2.5BTTS yes
Bet365 · 22h agoTreaty UnitedUCDMarkets Field, Limerick · Kickoff 10/2/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Not fetched yet
Why the model thinks this
Expected goals: Treaty United 1.73 vs UCD 1.41.
That gives 45% home win, 24% draw, 31% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 13.3 pts, draw -1.3 pts, away -12.0 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : draw or UCD
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
All markets
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Treaty United win | 44% | 2.26 | 2.88 | +28% |
| Draw | 25% | 3.99 | 3.50 | -12% |
| UCD win | 31% | 3.27 | 2.10 | -36% |
| Treaty United (draw no bet) | 59% | 1.69 | - | - |
| UCD (draw no bet) | 41% | 2.45 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
Bookmaker comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 45% / 24% / 31% | ||||
| Bet365 | 2.88 | 3.50 | 2.10 | 31% / 26% / 43% | 10.9% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineups & absences
Treaty United
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
Absent
None reported.
UCD
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
Absent
None reported.
Treaty United recent form
- W9/25/2026Treaty United 2-1 Finn Harps
- L9/18/2026Bray Wanderers 2-0 Treaty United
- W9/12/2026Longford Town 0-2 Treaty United
- L9/4/2026Treaty United 0-1 Wexford
- L8/28/2026Kerry 3-1 Treaty United
UCD recent form
- L9/25/2026UCD 1-3 Bray Wanderers
- L9/18/2026Cork City 5-1 UCD
- D9/11/2026UCD 2-2 Athlone Town
- D9/4/2026Cobh Ramblers 1-1 UCD
- W8/28/2026UCD 5-4 Finn Harps
Head to head
- W8/3/2026UCD 1-2 Treaty United
- L7/17/2026Treaty United 1-2 UCD
- L4/24/2026Treaty United 0-3 UCD
- L2/27/2026UCD 2-0 Treaty United
- W9/5/2025Treaty United 1-0 UCD
- D7/4/2025UCD 1-1 Treaty United