Finn Harps
KerryExpected goals 1.18 vs 1.65. Away side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
21h agoDouble chance : draw or Kerry
22h agoFinn Park, Ballybofey · Kickoff 10/2/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Expected goals: Finn Harps 1.18 vs Kerry 1.65.
That gives 27% home win, 26% draw, 48% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 1.7 pts, draw -1.6 pts, away -0.1 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : draw or Kerry
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finn Harps win | 26% | 3.79 | 3.50 | -8% |
| Draw | 26% | 3.82 | 3.25 | -15% |
| Kerry win | 47% | 2.11 | 1.85 | -12% |
| Finn Harps (draw no bet) | 36% | 2.80 | - | - |
| Kerry (draw no bet) | 64% | 1.56 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 27% / 26% / 48% | ||||
| Bet365 | 3.50 | 3.25 | 1.85 | 25% / 27% / 48% | 13.4% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.