Athlone Town
Cork CityExpected goals 1.62 vs 1.50. Away side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
21h agoDouble chance : draw or Cork City
22h agoAthlone Town Stadium, Athlone · Kickoff 10/2/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Expected goals: Athlone Town 1.62 vs Cork City 1.50.
That gives 40% home win, 25% draw, 35% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 13.0 pts, draw 0.1 pts, away -13.1 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : draw or Cork City
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athlone Town win | 40% | 2.51 | 3.25 | +30% |
| Draw | 25% | 3.93 | 3.60 | -8% |
| Cork City win | 35% | 2.88 | 1.85 | -36% |
| Athlone Town (draw no bet) | 53% | 1.87 | - | - |
| Cork City (draw no bet) | 47% | 2.15 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 40% / 25% / 35% | ||||
| Bet365 | 3.25 | 3.60 | 1.85 | 27% / 25% / 48% | 12.6% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.