Dundalk
BohemiansExpected goals 1.76 vs 2.16. Away side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
21h agoCombo Double chance : draw or Bohemians and +1.5 goals
22h agoOriel Park, Dundalk · Kickoff 10/2/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Expected goals: Dundalk 1.76 vs Bohemians 2.16.
That gives 31% home win, 21% draw, 47% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 5.3 pts, draw -4.2 pts, away -1.1 pts.
API-Football says: Combo Double chance : draw or Bohemians and +1.5 goals
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dundalk win | 31% | 3.19 | 3.50 | +10% |
| Draw | 22% | 4.59 | 3.60 | -22% |
| Bohemians win | 47% | 2.13 | 1.90 | -11% |
| Dundalk (draw no bet) | 40% | 2.49 | - | - |
| Bohemians (draw no bet) | 60% | 1.67 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 31% / 21% / 47% | ||||
| Bet365 | 3.50 | 3.60 | 1.90 | 26% / 25% / 48% | 9.0% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.