Sao Paulo
SantosMy Model1
43%28%29%
xG 1.5-1.2O2.5BTTS yes
Expected goals 1.51 vs 1.20. Teams rate closely on recent goals.
52m agoAPI-Football2
10%45%45%
Double chance : draw or Santos
20h agoBookmakers1
47%28%25%
U2.5BTTS yes
Bet365 · 20h agoSao PauloSantosMorumbi, Sao Paulo · Referee Matheus Delgado Candancan · Kickoff 10/2/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Not fetched yet
Why the model thinks this
Expected goals: Sao Paulo 1.51 vs Santos 1.20.
That gives 43% home win, 28% draw, 29% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -3.6 pts, draw 0.1 pts, away 3.5 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : draw or Santos
Model version dpois-1.202610022147
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
All markets
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sao Paulo win | 43% | 2.30 | 2.05 | -11% |
| Draw | 27% | 3.66 | 3.40 | -7% |
| Santos win | 29% | 3.42 | 3.80 | +11% |
| Sao Paulo (draw no bet) | 60% | 1.67 | - | - |
| Santos (draw no bet) | 40% | 2.49 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
Bookmaker comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 43% / 28% / 29% | ||||
| Bet365 | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.80 | 47% / 28% / 25% | 4.5% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineups & absences
Sao Paulo
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
Absent
None reported.
Santos
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
Absent
None reported.
Sao Paulo recent form
- W9/20/2026Sao Paulo 1-0 Internacional
- D9/16/2026Sao Paulo 1-1 Boca Juniors
- L9/12/2026Palmeiras 2-0 Sao Paulo
- L9/9/2026Boca Juniors 1-0 Sao Paulo
- W9/5/2026Sao Paulo 2-0 Atletico-MG
Santos recent form
- W9/19/2026Remo 1-2 Santos
- L9/16/2026Atletico-MG 4-2 Santos
- W9/13/2026Santos 2-1 Cruzeiro
- W9/9/2026Santos 2-0 Atletico-MG
- W9/6/2026Internacional 2-3 Santos
Head to head
- D2/4/2026Santos 1-1 Sao Paulo
- L9/21/2025Santos 1-0 Sao Paulo
- W4/20/2025Sao Paulo 2-1 Santos
- D11/12/2023Santos 0-0 Sao Paulo
- W7/16/2023Sao Paulo 4-1 Santos
- L8/21/2022Santos 1-0 Sao Paulo