Ukraine U21
Croatia U21Expected goals 1.41 vs 1.83. Away side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
21h agoWinner : Croatia U21
23h agoReferee D. Silva · Kickoff 10/2/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Expected goals: Ukraine U21 1.41 vs Croatia U21 1.83.
That gives 29% home win, 24% draw, 47% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -2.8 pts, draw -1.2 pts, away 4.1 pts.
API-Football says: Winner : Croatia U21
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine U21 win | 29% | 3.45 | 2.80 | -19% |
| Draw | 24% | 4.10 | 3.60 | -12% |
| Croatia U21 win | 47% | 2.14 | 2.10 | -2% |
| Ukraine U21 (draw no bet) | 38% | 2.61 | - | - |
| Croatia U21 (draw no bet) | 62% | 1.62 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 29% / 24% / 47% | ||||
| Bet365 | 2.80 | 3.60 | 2.10 | 32% / 25% / 43% | 11.1% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.