Slovenia U21
Netherlands U21Expected goals 1.41 vs 1.53. Away side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
21h agoDouble chance : draw or Netherlands U21
22h agoReferee A. Kanagasingam · Kickoff 10/2/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Expected goals: Slovenia U21 1.41 vs Netherlands U21 1.53.
That gives 34% home win, 26% draw, 40% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 23.8 pts, draw 7.8 pts, away -31.6 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : draw or Netherlands U21
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenia U21 win | 34% | 2.93 | 8.50 | +190% |
| Draw | 26% | 3.79 | 5.00 | +32% |
| Netherlands U21 win | 39% | 2.53 | 1.25 | -51% |
| Slovenia U21 (draw no bet) | 46% | 2.16 | - | - |
| Netherlands U21 (draw no bet) | 54% | 1.87 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 34% / 26% / 40% | ||||
| Bet365 | 8.50 | 5.00 | 1.25 | 11% / 18% / 72% | 11.8% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.