England U21
Slovakia U21Expected goals 2.25 vs 1.32. Home side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
20h agoDouble chance : England U21 or draw
21h agoReferee M. Busquets · Kickoff 10/2/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Expected goals: England U21 2.25 vs Slovakia U21 1.32.
That gives 58% home win, 21% draw, 21% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -19.1 pts, draw 6.1 pts, away 13.0 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : England U21 or draw
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| England U21 win | 58% | 1.73 | 1.18 | -32% |
| Draw | 21% | 4.72 | 6.25 | +33% |
| Slovakia U21 win | 21% | 4.75 | 11.00 | +132% |
| England U21 (draw no bet) | 73% | 1.36 | - | - |
| Slovakia U21 (draw no bet) | 27% | 3.74 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 58% / 21% / 21% | ||||
| Bet365 | 1.18 | 6.25 | 11.00 | 77% / 15% / 8% | 9.8% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.