Andorra U21
Moldova U21Expected goals 1.74 vs 1.32. Home side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
21h agoDouble chance : Andorra U21 or draw
22h agoReferee A. Aptsiauri · Kickoff 10/2/2026, 5:30:00 PM
Expected goals: Andorra U21 1.74 vs Moldova U21 1.32.
That gives 47% home win, 25% draw, 29% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 10.5 pts, draw -4.6 pts, away -6.0 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : Andorra U21 or draw
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andorra U21 win | 46% | 2.15 | 2.50 | +16% |
| Draw | 25% | 3.97 | 3.10 | -22% |
| Moldova U21 win | 28% | 3.53 | 2.60 | -26% |
| Andorra U21 (draw no bet) | 62% | 1.61 | - | - |
| Moldova U21 (draw no bet) | 38% | 2.64 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 47% / 25% / 29% | ||||
| Bet365 | 2.50 | 3.10 | 2.60 | 36% / 29% / 35% | 10.7% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.